I was very lucky in that I spent a good month on the beach forgetting everything I’ve ever known about IT. I was not so lucky in that my brain can’t stop observing and questioning human behavior, in IT or anywhere else. I can spot someone from NJ in seconds now. I can tell a driver is from Connecticut within one stupid maneuver.
Useful? Not really. But interesting nonethe less, at least to me.
I currently do not look like I’m an IT geek. I’m far too tan for that. Thus I will be incognito for at least another few weeks.
Here are some of my current thoughts, in no specific order, and absolutely no coherent pattern – other than that in one way or another they all relate to the odd ways in which humans – and companies (collections of humans) do things:
- It’s funny to watch people who recently arrive on vacation, and how long it takes them to slow down. They are in a rush to get nowhere. They freak out when it takes 45 minutes for a hippy chick to bring them a check after their lunch and lose it over bad service – but they have nowhere to go.
- People hold grudges. A lot of the big OEMs are not at all happy with the way Seagate gouged them after the Thailand floods, and are quietly plotting retribution. Karma is a bitch.
- If Amazon ever gets its pricing model coherent and rational, it truly could be the biggest infrastructure cloud business ever – for a long time. However, they still don’t have it nailed. Lot of bad press on them screwing people to “recover” data lately. Businesses won’t tolerate that for long—the ease of setting up will be outweighed by the outrageous bills eventually. Funny thing is, they could own the world if they figure it out.
- Speaking of Amazon, is there any reason to shop anywhere else? My UPS guy is probably going to be invited to family functions I see him so often. Just a few years ago that type of consumption model didn’t exist—and now I don’t buy any other way. That gets me to think that it’s insane that core infrastructure companies still don’t offer customers a legitimate cloud consumption model. Why can’t I buy EMC or NTAP or HP/Dell/IBM etc. as a pay as you go service? Sure they have “offerings” but they aren’t serious, or mainstreamed. I get how it’s hard to give up the tradition – but if you don’t, aren’t you afraid someone will? Amazon and Nirvanix won’t be the only ones who give the people what they want.
- Speaking of those unwilling to give up the ghost, we are due for an upheaval. We haven’t had a class extinction in the infrastructure business for a few decades – since the minicomputer era. DEC, Prime, Wang, DG, etc. – all huge successful companies, deader than pterodactyls within 5 years after a meteor strike (open systems).
- I love entrepreneurs. I love anyone who will take on the establishment and try to upset the money train. Most are clueless. Like the moron who decided to go swimming 500 yards off shore this summer, in known Great White shark infested waters off Cape Cod, in known seal inhabited areas. Balls, yes, but the brain of a newt. Of course he was attacked. He was playing the big fishes game, and in that case, I root for the fish. Darwinism works – in life and in business. Occasionally, however, someone spots a new opening or opportunity where you can play the big fishes’ instincts and habits against themselves. That is exciting. I love when a startup can find a market with big money involved that can be overturned potentially—which by nature the big fish will ignore. I see interesting potential in the likes of Plexxi, SimpliVity, Cache IQ, Gridstore, and a few others—feeding where the sharks can’t get at them, at least for a while.
- Speaking of being eaten, I predict that the feeding frenzy around solid-state storage will commence in earnest this fall. The big guys who haven’t made significant plays (really anyone except EMC), will do so. That means 3 of you SSD types will make some good money. It also means 72 of you will cease to be.
- My latest concoction of deliciousness is Blueberry Vodka, Vitamin Water Zero Lemonade (to maintain my svelte figure whilst consuming gallons upon gallons), and a dash of Blueberry Juice (costs more than plutonium on a per oz. basis).
Ciao for now.