Forget consumers, or small business.
When we talk large enterprises, where's the money going? Everybody is "planning" or looking, but where's the spend?
For new applications—or "green field"—the spend is clearly going to Amazon. I'd guess 90%+
For old/existing/legacy applications—what's actually getting deployed, and where?
The overwhelming conclusion one must make at this point is nowhere. We're talking a good game, but who's doing it in earnest? I'm not seeing it.
Having said that, stop whining that I'm a pessimist—I'm not. I believe that we'll see a semi-orderly transition to the cloud for existing apps in much the same way you do—things like e-mail are happening, as are file data moves (OFS)—but there is little to no MONEY being spent on it.
So what are the gates? Cost (check), Complexity (check), and Time (check). Sound familiar? It's not easy to to take even a single-instance, limited interdependent application on a single stack and move it out to the cloud. It's not cheaper. If anything it's more expensive. And it's not easy to plan and accomplish—it takes time, something IT is woefully short of.
Thus, in order to see significant MONEY spent to migrate/move existing apps to the cloud (private or public), we must overcome these obstacles. In order to do that we must (excuse my simple mindedness):
A: Find a way to lower the REAL costs of moving from my own kit in my own data center to a secure instance executing in the cloud. If I have to buy all new stuff to do it, and then pay someone else to manage it, it's not going to be cheaper.
B: Find a way to make it simple—I really want to ship an entire SYSTEM (virtual, presumably) that contains everything as is, from where it currently resides, to the cloud. With one button.
C: Do B, and you solve for time. There isn't any additional time involved.
Sounds simple, ya? But no ones done it. Moving existing legacy apps to the cloud take armies of consultants, tons of dough, and an obscene amount of time. That's why no one is out there talking about how much money they are MAKING on this stuff, only how much they are SPENDING. Big difference.
Added Bonus Consideration I Stole Recently: People dramatically overestimate what will change within two years, and radically underestimate what will change in ten.